Analisa Trendline #USDJPY 2016

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Selamat tahun baru 2016. Harap tahun baru semua trader dapat gain profit and stabil percentage gains. Kat bawah ni aku ada paste sedikit fundamental view dari trader fxstreet. Mostly JPY still in control selepas daripada announcement dari kuroda. Tetapi tidak begitu rancak. Mungkin situasi berada penghujung tahun. Kenyataan kuroda aku jangkakan JPY strong bersifat sementara. Ini kerana traders lebih berminat kepada usd berikutan pengukuhan ekonomi US.

USDJPY mungkin akan mencecah pada harga tertinggi tahun 2016 iaitu 130-135. Support yang terdekat untuk memastikan bullish trend adalah pada 115. Dan jika dilihat dari trendline analisis, market berada dibawah trendline dan mungkin menuju kepada support pada level 118.06

The Bank of Japan shook the markets by announcing a change in its stimulus program. The movement was hardly a surprise in the fact, given that investors have been largely speculating with an extension of the local QE, but it was a surprise in the timing, as no one was expecting Kuroda to made announcements one day after the FED pulled the trigger on its first rate hike.

BOJ's head later said that
“these measures are not a response to downside risks for prices or the economy” 
adding that
“this is not additional easing” 
after announcing an extra Y300B purchases of equities a year. The Bank will start buying government bonds with a remaining maturity of up to 12 years and will accept more risky assets.

When Shinzo Abe launched its ambitious "Abenomics" he was expecting inflation to reach its 2% target in 2-3 years. He never expected inflation to fall below 1.0% neither the latest three-month in-a-row decline to October. The core consumer price index, which excludes fresh food, fell 0.1% from a year earlier. Excluding energy prices and food prices actually rose 0.7% on year, though that was lower than the 0.9% rise in September.

Anyway, and as the ECB, the latest BOJ's decision just widens the policy divergence between Japan and the US. And while the consecutive announcements have resulted in a decline in the USD/JPY as the US announced the softer tightening possible, and the second surprised with more stimulus, the fact is that in the long run there's little supporting further JPY appreciation.
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